Sydney Fish Market Site

Our instructions required:

• Valuation of the freehold interest in the land
• Adoption of the residual land value methodology appropriate for a site of this scale and complexity

Preparation of a cash flow based feasibility analysis, incorporating:

• Development costs
• Construction staging
• Sales realisations
• Timing, escalation and funding assumptions

Cross‑checking of the outcome against:

• Development site sales evidence
• Benchmark rates per dwelling site and per square metre of GFA

Asset Overview

• Location: Blackwattle Bay, approximately 2.5 km from the Sydney CBD
• Land Area: 3.46 hectares across six consolidated allotments
• Current Use: Sydney Fish Market multi-level commercial complex with retail, hospitality and industrial uses
• Ownership: Government Property NSW

The Sydney Fish Market site comprises approximately 3.46 hectares of strategically located waterfront land at Blackwattle Bay, forming a key component of the broader Bays Precinct renewal.

The site benefits from a rare harbourfront position, combined with proximity to the Sydney CBD, making it one of the most strategically significant redevelopment opportunities within inner Sydney.

The site consists of six allotments with direct harbour frontage and proximity to major transport infrastructure. At the time of valuation, the land was improved with existing fish market, retail and commercial buildings.

The valuation assumed rezoning, demolition of existing improvements and a master‑planned staged redevelopment comprising approximately 1,982 residential apartments, ground‑level retail activation and extensive public domain works.

Given the absence of directly comparable transactions, Preston Rowe Paterson adopted a cash flow feasibility and residual land valuation approach as the primary methodology.

Key Analytical Steps

1. Development Configuration

• Rationalised GFA, yield and unit mix
• Adopted 1,982 apartments based on optimisation of value

2. Gross Realisation Modelling

• Residential pricing derived from:
  – Barangaroo
  – Pyrmont
  – Darling Harbour benchmarks
• Retail values benchmarked to Sydney metropolitan sales

3. Cost Assessment

• Independent construction cost modelling
• Benchmarking against Rawlinsons cost guide
• Inclusion of:

– Construction

-Statutory costs

-Marketing
-Finance

4. DCF Modelling

• Monthly cash flow model across:

-Planning period
-Construction staging
-Sell-down phase

• Assumptions included:

-6% cost of debt
-2.5% growth in costs and revenues
-25% developer margin on cost

5. Secondary Benchmarking

• Cross-check against development site sales:

– $167k – $817k per unit range

Our Expertise

This engagement demonstrates Preston Rowe Paterson’s capability in delivering robust valuation and feasibility advice for complex, government led waterfront urban renewal projects subject to significant planning, staging and market risk.

It highlighted our expertise in:

• Complex feasibility and residual land valuation;
• Major urban renewal precinct advisory;
• Integration of market evidence into large-scale DCF models; and
• Advisory support for government and legal negotiations.

The Sydney Fish Market redevelopment demonstrates the application of advanced feasibility modelling and valuation judgement in circumstances where:

• Comparable evidence is limited
• Planning outcomes are uncertain
• Scale and staging materially influence value

The valuation provided a defensible, market-based position to support high-level negotiations on one of Sydney’s most strategically significant redevelopment opportunities.